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The average income of Indians would match that of US or British citizens on July 27, 2048, says software..

You might call it a vision, a conviction or even an assumption, but health expert and data visionary Hans Rosling predicts that the day the average income of Indians would match that of US or British citizens is not too far away. It would happen on July 27, 2048, says Rosling, a professor of global health at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute. His prediction is based on the software that converts international statistics into moving, interactive and enjoyable graphics.

Rosling developed the software through the non-profit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. Google now owns and shares the free software, calling it Motion Chart.”It is possible, probable, but far from certain,” says Rosling. “It requires a right mindset in the Indian people and the government, which will help make the right decisions. It is also important that the world accepts that it is a good thing that everybody has a good life,” he adds.

Rosling, who works to dispel common myths about the so-called developing world, traces the change in his mindset to the time when he was a guest student at St John’s Medical College in Bangalore. “It was a brutal realisation that the Indian students were better than me. I realised that the West will not continue to dominate the world for ever,” says Rosling.

Inequalities within countries such as India and China are the biggest impediment to progress, and social investment in health, infrastructure, education and electricity is needed in India and China, he says. Also, the countries must come to an agreement with regard to climate change.

The other question is whether the former rich countries would accept a shift in power, a change in the world order. “India is changing, but the attitude towards India is not changing. I see new trade barriers arising,” says Rosling. “These would be used by the former rich countries to protect their own interests,” he adds.

For example, they might talk of child labour to stop imports from India. And they can do it because the problem of child labour does exist in the country to an extent, says Rosling. He says it is difficult for Europe to relate to the fact that India has progressed so much in IT.


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