{"id":6001,"date":"2015-04-27T08:42:45","date_gmt":"2015-04-27T03:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/?p=6001"},"modified":"2024-11-13T15:37:23","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T10:07:23","slug":"what-if-earthquakes-were-predicted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/what-if-earthquakes-were-predicted\/","title":{"rendered":"What if earthquakes were predicted?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The weekend was\u00a0taken over by the worst earthquake in the sub-continent in the last eight decades. Thousands of lives have been lost, scores injured and property worth millions destroyed. News of further losses pour in as the aftershocks continue to shake us all up.<\/p>\n<p>Geologists and scientists have always been monitoring the occurrence and frequency of earthquakes to simulate models. As the potential of seismic activity along tectonic fault lines is pre-established, it is surely possible to correlate structured and unstructured data from various sources to predict earthquakes? That\u2019s what we die-hard believers in GIS and analytics would like to think.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Well, you may be surprised to know it\u00a0is indeed possible.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/decodedpast.com\/haicheng-earthquake-1975-example-earthquake-prediction\/6026\">Earthquake prediction<\/a> began with the Haicheng earthquake of China (1975). A <a href=\"http:\/\/decodedpast.com\/haicheng-earthquake-1975-example-earthquake-prediction\/6026\">blend of <\/a>\u00a0empirical analysis, intuitive judgment, extensive scientific studies and a series of foreshocks was used to make the prediction. Evacuation of the one million people populated city was ordered just days before a 7.3-magnitude quake devastated Haicheng.. The success of prediction was based on earthquake precursors &#8211; unusually high temperatures, sulphurous gas emissions, strange animal behaviour, abnormal earthquake cloud formations \u2013 appearing along fault lines, together with geologic data.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly four decades on. Advances in analytical rigour have moved beyond the descriptive to the predictive. A company called <a href=\"http:\/\/www.terraseismic.com\/\">Terra Seismic<\/a> now successful forecasts earthquakes, like the Tarapaca megaquake (8.1) of Chile, the Mexico quake (7.2) and the 6.4 quake in Indonesia nine days before it hit on March 3. Using its flagship <a href=\"http:\/\/quakehunters.com\/\">Quake Hunters<\/a>, the company offers seismic analytics-as-a-service to insurers and government agencies.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Terra-seismic-logo.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6002\" src=\"https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Terra-seismic-logo.png\" alt=\"Terra seismic logo\" width=\"161\" height=\"116\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>The Terra Seismic message tells you \u2018Forecasting Earthquakes\u2019 is possible!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Companies like Terra Seismic use satellite Big Data, earth observations and the internet \u201cto predict major earthquakes anywhere in the world with 90% accuracy\u201d. Data from satellite services, as well as ground based sensors is\u00a0used to measure abnormalities in the atmosphere that occur before the real quake. The Apache Server system processes voluminous satellite data, correlating with sensor and other data based on earlier occurrences, for real-time estimation, analysis and simulation.<\/p>\n<p>In an\u00a0earlier blog, we have explored\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/blog\/2014\/11\/30\/from-the-descriptive-to-the-predictive-analytics-in-climate-science\/\">the power of big data analytics in climate science<\/a>. In seismic activity prediction too, big data has the capability to analyse potentially seismic zones, connect the same with huge volumes of structured and unstructured data\u00a0to construct fairly accurate models using statistical analysis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Analysing unstructured data<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Take twitter data for instance. You can mine information related to earthquakes or its\u00a0occurrence\u00a0by targeting hashtags based on scientifically established earthquakes precursors. So hashtags would factor in #unusual #clouds #behavior #animals #weather #gasemissions #cloudformations #hightemp #EarthquakePrediction and so on.<\/p>\n<p>Using various filters, streaming endpoints, images, feeds, links, and the like, huge amounts of unstructured data can be correlated with potential seismic areas, hazard maps and fault lines.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Earthquake-images.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6003\" src=\"https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Earthquake-images.png\" alt=\"Earthquake images\" width=\"546\" height=\"411\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Earthquake-images.png 546w, https:\/\/ivyproschool.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Earthquake-images-300x226.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 546px) 100vw, 546px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Pinned from <a href=\"http:\/\/quakehunters.com\/\">QuakeHunters<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov\/research\/hazrisk\/\">USGS<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Analysis of Structured Data \u2013\u00a0 <\/strong>includes satellite data from satellite services across the world, global meteorological data, data from field and laboratory observations,<\/p>\n<p>geophysical, geological, geochemical, mathematical and computational modeling of fault zones and seismic activity<\/p>\n<p>atmospheric data, geologic information like crustal deformation<\/p>\n<p><strong>Correlated information &#8211; <\/strong>long-term probabilistic hazard assessments (shaking hazard maps, 30-year earthquake probability reports), foreshock probabilities, historical reports<\/p>\n<p>Earthquake predictions can not only be used to prepare and ensure minimal loss of lives, but also be leveraged for risk and vulnerability assessments.<\/p>\n<p>Now\u00a0are you wondering like I am why the severe 7.9 magnitude earthquake of Nepal was not forecasted, given that <a href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2015\/04\/25\/opinions\/stark-nepal-earthquake-geology\/index.html\">the area was long expecting a magnitude 8 earthquake<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ndtv.com\/india-news\/no-earthquake-forecast-for-india-by-nasa-says-government-758337\">NASA has just put out that earthquake prediction is not possible<\/a>. Yet, as proved by Terra Seismic in a couple of cases, it might just be possible! \u00a0So does the analytical mind give up on the possibilities of Big Data Analytics to make earthquake predictions?<\/p>\n<p><strong>UPDATE (1st May)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The USGS has put up on its website an<a href=\"http:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov\/archive\/product\/image\/us20002926-nepal-aft-v2\/admin\/1430168396588\/nepal%20aftershock%20forecast.v2.pdf\"> Aftershock Forecast &amp; Table\u00a0(<\/a>27th April)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>&#8220;In the coming week, the USGS expects 3-14 M\u22655 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.8 Nepal earthquake.\u00a0 Additionally, the USGS estimates that there is a 54% chance of a M\u22656\u00a0aftershock, and a 7% chance of a M\u22657 aftershock during this one-week period.\u2026. \u00a0 Based on general earthquake statistics, the expected number of\u00a0M\u2265 3 or 4 aftershocks can be estimated by multiplying the expected number of M&gt;=5 aftershocks by\u00a0100 or 10, respectively.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em><strong>So, the\u00a0analytical \u00a0rigour DOES extend to earthquake prediction. What if Terra Seismic failed, it hasn&#8217;t stopped the USGS from making earthquake predictions or developing\u00a0apps and systems that make statistical inferences!!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Additional reading:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>USGS &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov\/learn\/topics\/animal_eqs.php\">Earthquake Topics for education<\/a><\/p>\n<p>USGS &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov\/hazards\/apps\/\">Seismic Hazard Analysis tools<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.shakealert.org\/\">The ShakeAlert App<\/a> endorsed by USGS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you thought earthquakes could not be predicted, you may just be wrong. A company has been using the capabilities of big data analytics to successfully predict earthquakes!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[552],"tags":[56,646,342,649,650,426,140,647,648],"class_list":["post-6001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technology","tag-big-data-analytics","tag-earthquake","tag-forecasting","tag-haichung-earthquake","tag-nepal-earthquake","tag-prediction","tag-predictive-analytics","tag-seismic-analysis","tag-terra-seismic"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? 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